Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
